Letter from Doke (News and Informantion 15th August 2012)

Hi

Since the last letter, I've left the house precisely once to player poker. I went along to the 888 Super Stack in Citywest with the idea that I'd gamble it up and either get a stack or be gone early. I've often gone into smaller events with that plan but never managed to execute it: in running I seem to be incapable of just flicking it in to gamble. Years of training to wait for good spots is hard to override I guess.

Once again I basically grinded my way through day one to finish up on starting stack but down on average. I've had a lot of short day 2's this year but this wasn't one. I ran very well until the final table but then lost a few flips to bust in 7th. Unfortunately you can't choose when to run good and my year so far proves it: I've run shockingly bad in all the bigger events, and the live events I've run best in tend to be the least important.

I don't plan much else this month live beyond the Fitz End of Month as I've a couple of foreign trips (UKIPT Newcastle and EMOP Barcelona) planned for next month so want to get in good volume online before. Online's been going very well since I came back from Vegas.

This week's strategy section is inspired by a reader who asked me if it was correct to shove all in on the button with 15.5 big blinds and no antes and K8o. My answer was "it depends on what hands you think the two blinds will call with". One of the biggest developments in poker in the past couple of years is that people call a lot more in these situations. A few years ago, typically the blinds would only call with a top 5% hand (some players were even tighter).

Let's look at the maths then. How do we figure out if a shove is profitable or not? The procedure is as follows:

(1) estimate what hands they will call with
(2) work out from that how often you'll get called. For example, if you think they'll both only call with a top 5% hand (99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo), then your shove will get through 90% of the time
(3) from this work out your fold equity (how much you can expect to pick up when they fold): 0.9 times 1.5 big blinds = 1.35 big blinds
(4) using Pokerstove or some other similar tool, calculate your equity when you are called (how often you should win). In this example, K8o has 25% equity against a top 5% hand
(5) you now work out your equity when called as 0.1 (.25*32 - 15.5) big blinds = -0.75 big blinds

So in this case, when the two blinds only call with top 5% of hands, it's a profitable shove. On average every time you do it, you win 1.35-0.75 = 0.6 big blinds.

However, as I said earlier, players call much wider typically these days, which changes the calculations. Say if instead of top 5% we think the blinds will call with a top 15% hand (77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+)

Now we have less fold equity since we get called 70% of the time. Our fold equity in this scenario is .7*1.5 = 1.05 big blinds.

Because we're called by a wider range of hands, we'll be in somewhat better shape when called, but according to Pokerstove we still only have 32% equity against a top 15% hand. So our equity loss when called is now 0.3 (.32*32 - 15.5) big blinds = -1.650 big blinds approximately. That means that the shove is now unprofitable to the tune of 1.05 - 1.650 = -0.6 big blinds.

A few years ago, most good players who found themselves getting short stacked would shove any two cards if folded to on the button. This was a reasonable strategy at the time as people rarely called but now that most people are calling closer to the correct frequency, that changes things.

How often is the correct frequency? That brings us to another concept called Nash Equilibrium, which I'll explain in the next letter.

Good luck at the tables, unless I'm at the same table!

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