Hi
Since the last letter, I've left the house precisely once to player
poker. I went along to the 888 Super Stack in Citywest with the idea
that I'd gamble it up and either get a stack or be gone early. I've
often gone into smaller events with that plan but never managed to
execute it: in running I seem to be incapable of just flicking it in
to gamble. Years of training to wait for good spots is hard to
override I guess.
Once again I basically grinded my way through day
one to finish up on starting stack but down on average.
I've had a lot of short day 2's this year but this wasn't one. I ran
very well until the final table but then lost a few flips to bust in
7th. Unfortunately you can't choose when to run good and my year so
far proves it: I've run shockingly bad in all the bigger events, and
the live events I've run best in tend to be the least important.
I don't plan much else this month live beyond the Fitz End of Month as
I've a couple of foreign trips (UKIPT Newcastle and EMOP Barcelona)
planned for next month so want to get in good volume online before.
Online's been going very well since I came back from Vegas.
This week's strategy section is inspired by a reader who asked me if
it was correct to shove all in on the button with 15.5 big blinds and
no antes and K8o. My answer was "it depends on what hands you think
the two blinds will call with". One of the biggest developments in
poker in the past couple of years is that people call a lot more in
these situations. A few years ago, typically the blinds would only
call with a top 5% hand (some players were even tighter).
Let's look at the maths then. How do we figure out if a shove is
profitable or not? The procedure is as follows:
(1) estimate what hands they will call with
(2) work out from that how often you'll get called. For example, if
you think they'll both only call with a top 5% hand
(99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo), then your shove will get through 90% of the time
(3) from this work out your fold equity (how much you can expect to
pick up when they fold): 0.9 times 1.5 big blinds = 1.35 big blinds
(4) using Pokerstove or some other similar tool, calculate your equity
when you are called (how often you should win). In this example, K8o
has 25% equity against a top 5% hand
(5) you now work out your equity when called as 0.1 (.25*32 - 15.5)
big blinds = -0.75 big blinds
So in this case, when the two blinds only call with top 5% of hands,
it's a profitable shove. On average every time you do it, you win
1.35-0.75 = 0.6 big blinds.
However, as I said earlier, players call much wider typically these
days, which changes the calculations. Say if instead of top 5% we
think the blinds will call with a top 15% hand
(77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+)
Now we have less fold equity since we get called 70% of the time. Our
fold equity in this scenario is .7*1.5 = 1.05 big blinds.
Because we're called by a wider range of hands, we'll be in somewhat
better shape when called, but according to Pokerstove we still only
have 32% equity against a top 15% hand. So our equity loss when called
is now 0.3 (.32*32 - 15.5) big blinds = -1.650 big blinds
approximately.
That means that the shove is now unprofitable to the tune of 1.05 -
1.650 = -0.6 big blinds.
A few years ago, most good players who found themselves getting short
stacked would shove any two cards if folded to on the button. This was
a reasonable strategy at the time as people rarely called but now that
most people are calling closer to the correct frequency, that changes
things.
How often is the correct frequency? That brings us to another
concept called Nash Equilibrium, which I'll explain in the next
letter.
Good luck at the tables, unless I'm at the same table!
Don't forget to 'Like' our Team Irish Eyes Poker page on Facebook and you can
get the password to the Weekly Facebook €100 Freeroll every Wednesday night.
Click on the links below for details on all Irish Eyes Poker Promotions, Blogs, and News.
Irish Eyes Poker Promotions - click here
Join Team Irish Eyes Poker on Facebook - click here
Join EMOP Ireland on Facebook -- click here
Keep up to date on Doke's blog - click here
Interview with Per Hildebrand - click here
Play Fast Online Poker on your Mobile or iPad on Terminal Poker. For Signup Offer - click here
Play live poker with the Celtic Poker Tour. For next events and news - click here
The Hive Poker, Instadeal Poker, Casino, Sports Betting, on your PC, Laptop, Smartphone or Tablet.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Thursday, August 02, 2012
Letter from Doke (News and Promotions - 2nd August 2012)
Hi
Welcome to this week's letter where there is news on new promotions including details of a 'Reload Bonus', a look back at my trip to San Sebastian as well as our poker strategy section.
Since my last letter, I've got in some good online grinding (highlights were a deep run in Super Tuesday on Stars, a couple of high roller final tables and winning a Barcelona EMOP package on Irish Eyes) and a trip to Spain for Estrellas San Sebastian.
I had a pretty good day one, increasing from 15K starting to just over 27k at the end of the day. After a good start to day 2 (I was up to 37k after the first hand), it all went south fairly fast. After losing over half my stack with KQs versus J9o all in pre, my exit was one of the more bizarre I've ever had. It involved everyone folding to me in the small blind after the big blind had failed to protect his cards and had them mucked by the dealer, me shoving from the small blind, and him then being allowed to retrieve two cards from the muck and make the call with kings. I asked the dealer for the floor but there seemed to be a language issue and she didn't seem to understand. I spoke to the tournament director after the event but with the action having already moved on and other hands having been dealt, there was obviously nothing else that could be done at this point.
After that debacle I was in no real humour to play any side events so I just chilled for the rest of the trip. There was a good travelling Irish contingent that included David Lappin, Gary Clarke, Feargal Nealon and Annette Carroll. Feargal was chipleader for a while on day one and continued his recent run of good form with another cash. Feargal is looking very focussed at the table these days and I don't think it's a coincidence that his recent run of form has coincided with his getting into great physical shape (he recently won a bike race in Sligo!).
This week's strategy section continues my exit hand from the WSOP main event. After my opponent threebet big, my next decision was whether to flat call or raise, and if I did raise, how to size it. In these spots I would prefer to flat if I thought there was any danger my opponent would fold, but based on the way he was playing and his three bet sizing, I didn't feel this was likely. So I elected to raise. When sizing the raise, the main considerations were to size it so that it was (a) not too big that he might fold (if I shove all in for example or bet enough to make it clear I'm pot committed he might get the message) (b) not too small that he can profitably set mine.
Set mining is where you figure that you have a smaller pair and call with the intention of giving up if you don't hit a set because you feel that you'll win a big pot when you do hit a set to make it profitable. You flop a set 14% of the time so it needs to cost less than 14% of what you'll win to call preflop for it to be profitable (actually a bit less, since you can't be certain you'll get fully paid when you do, and occasionally you'll be set over setted or lose some other way even when you do hit your set). With a stack of 40k I therefore wanted to raise a bit more than 5600 to make set mining unprofitable, so I elected to raise just over 6k to 12925. This bet size is less than a third of my stack so my opponent might reasonably think I'm not committed (which is what happened).
Inspired by the 2012 Summer Olympics, Irish Eyes Poker is organizing its own Poker Olympics where poker champions get the recognition and the prizes that come along with the thrill of victory.
A MacBook Air, the new iPad, a trip to EMOP Barcelona, and cash are just some of the rewards at stake. Choose your event: 400 meter hurdles? The triple or high jump? A marathon? Enter the events and find riches on the road to glory! To enhance these exciting contests, players can receive an extra bonus by participating in the Reload Bonus during the second week of August.
MARATHON
Starting 9 August at 20:00, Irish Eyes Poker will run a weekly Thursday Marathon tournament, where players will have a chance to win a MacBook Air 11" (Core i5, 1.6 GHz, 64 GB, SSD) notebook or a cash prize. The buy-in is 20 VIP points that must be earned 48 hours prior to the start of each tournament.The maximum number of participants is 1000, 5000 in starting chips, and 20 minute levels.
The winners will be determined two hours after the tournament start. At approximately 22:00, the tournaments will be stopped. Depending on stack sizes at that time, all qualified players will receive their prizes.
When the tournament is stopped, a special The tournament is pausing note appears on all tables and all current hands are played out to the end.
The final standings of the tournament can be found on the Players tab.
MacBook Air, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "Marathon MacBook claim"
- Poker nickname
- Full home address
- Phone number
Cash prizes will be paid out within 48 hours after the tournament end.
ATHLETICS
Triple Jump
Get the same pair as a starting hand three times in a row at the same cash game table and win €300.
This promotion is available on all real money Texas Hold'em tables.
To claim a prize, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "Triple Jump claim"
- Hand History number of the first pair hand
- Poker nickname
High Jump
Get a Royal Flush in any suit using at least one of your hole cards and win €100.
This promotion is available on all real money Texas Hold'em tables.
To claim a prize, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "High Jump claim"
- Hand History number of the Royal Flush hand
- Poker nickname
400 Meter Hurdles
Win four Super Turbo Sit and Go tournaments in a row on the same level and win a new iPad (4G, 16 GB, White) or a cash prize!
Sit and Go's qualifying for this promotion are marked (PROMO) in the lobby.
Please note that the collation of tournaments is determined by time of registration.
To claim the new iPad, players must send an e-mail with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August.
- Subject "400 Meter Hurdles claim"
- Tournament ID of the first Sit and Go in the series (in the poker lobby under Account Information/Last Transactions)
- Poker nickname
- Full home address
- Phone number
RELOAD WEEK (6 - 12 August)
Reload your account between 6th and 12th August to receive a 100% deposit bonus. When depositing 50 euro use the code deposit50 or when depositing 100 euro use the code deposit100. Then when you have earned 500 vip points after the 50 euro deposit or 1000 vip points after the 100 euro deposit (there is no time limit to when you earn the vip points) you will receive your bonus.
SPRINT CHALLENGE - WIN A SEAT TO EMOP BARCELONA
Compete in the Sprint Challenge at 100, 200, 400 and 800 meters between 8 August and 29 August and take a chance to win a travel package to EMOP Barcelona worth €2,000!
Each package consists of a tournament buy-in of €1,100, fours nights' accommodation, and a €350 travel bonus, which is credited to the winners' poker account.
The buy-in in VIP-points is the same as each distance and is calculated from 1 August 00:00 until the start of each challenge. I hope to see you there.
Don't forget to 'Like' our Team Irish Eyes Poker page on Facebook and you can get the password to the Weekly Facebook €100 Freeroll every Wednesday night. Here is the link http://www.facebook.com/pages/Team-Irish-Eyes-Poker/112290065454803
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Click on the links below for details on all Irish Eyes Poker Promotions, Blogs, and News.
Irish Eyes Poker Promotions - click here
Join Team Irish Eyes Poker on Facebook - click here
Join EMOP Ireland on Facebook -- click here
Keep up to date on Doke's blog - click here
Interview with Per Hildebrand - click here
Play Fast Online Poker on your Mobile or iPad on Terminal Poker. For Signup Offer - click here
Play live poker with the Celtic Poker Tour. For next events and news - click here
Welcome to this week's letter where there is news on new promotions including details of a 'Reload Bonus', a look back at my trip to San Sebastian as well as our poker strategy section.
Since my last letter, I've got in some good online grinding (highlights were a deep run in Super Tuesday on Stars, a couple of high roller final tables and winning a Barcelona EMOP package on Irish Eyes) and a trip to Spain for Estrellas San Sebastian.
I had a pretty good day one, increasing from 15K starting to just over 27k at the end of the day. After a good start to day 2 (I was up to 37k after the first hand), it all went south fairly fast. After losing over half my stack with KQs versus J9o all in pre, my exit was one of the more bizarre I've ever had. It involved everyone folding to me in the small blind after the big blind had failed to protect his cards and had them mucked by the dealer, me shoving from the small blind, and him then being allowed to retrieve two cards from the muck and make the call with kings. I asked the dealer for the floor but there seemed to be a language issue and she didn't seem to understand. I spoke to the tournament director after the event but with the action having already moved on and other hands having been dealt, there was obviously nothing else that could be done at this point.
After that debacle I was in no real humour to play any side events so I just chilled for the rest of the trip. There was a good travelling Irish contingent that included David Lappin, Gary Clarke, Feargal Nealon and Annette Carroll. Feargal was chipleader for a while on day one and continued his recent run of good form with another cash. Feargal is looking very focussed at the table these days and I don't think it's a coincidence that his recent run of form has coincided with his getting into great physical shape (he recently won a bike race in Sligo!).
This week's strategy section continues my exit hand from the WSOP main event. After my opponent threebet big, my next decision was whether to flat call or raise, and if I did raise, how to size it. In these spots I would prefer to flat if I thought there was any danger my opponent would fold, but based on the way he was playing and his three bet sizing, I didn't feel this was likely. So I elected to raise. When sizing the raise, the main considerations were to size it so that it was (a) not too big that he might fold (if I shove all in for example or bet enough to make it clear I'm pot committed he might get the message) (b) not too small that he can profitably set mine.
Set mining is where you figure that you have a smaller pair and call with the intention of giving up if you don't hit a set because you feel that you'll win a big pot when you do hit a set to make it profitable. You flop a set 14% of the time so it needs to cost less than 14% of what you'll win to call preflop for it to be profitable (actually a bit less, since you can't be certain you'll get fully paid when you do, and occasionally you'll be set over setted or lose some other way even when you do hit your set). With a stack of 40k I therefore wanted to raise a bit more than 5600 to make set mining unprofitable, so I elected to raise just over 6k to 12925. This bet size is less than a third of my stack so my opponent might reasonably think I'm not committed (which is what happened).
Inspired by the 2012 Summer Olympics, Irish Eyes Poker is organizing its own Poker Olympics where poker champions get the recognition and the prizes that come along with the thrill of victory.
A MacBook Air, the new iPad, a trip to EMOP Barcelona, and cash are just some of the rewards at stake. Choose your event: 400 meter hurdles? The triple or high jump? A marathon? Enter the events and find riches on the road to glory! To enhance these exciting contests, players can receive an extra bonus by participating in the Reload Bonus during the second week of August.
MARATHON
Starting 9 August at 20:00, Irish Eyes Poker will run a weekly Thursday Marathon tournament, where players will have a chance to win a MacBook Air 11" (Core i5, 1.6 GHz, 64 GB, SSD) notebook or a cash prize. The buy-in is 20 VIP points that must be earned 48 hours prior to the start of each tournament.The maximum number of participants is 1000, 5000 in starting chips, and 20 minute levels.
The winners will be determined two hours after the tournament start. At approximately 22:00, the tournaments will be stopped. Depending on stack sizes at that time, all qualified players will receive their prizes.
When the tournament is stopped, a special The tournament is pausing note appears on all tables and all current hands are played out to the end.
The final standings of the tournament can be found on the Players tab.
MacBook Air, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "Marathon MacBook claim"
- Poker nickname
- Full home address
- Phone number
Cash prizes will be paid out within 48 hours after the tournament end.
ATHLETICS
Triple Jump
Get the same pair as a starting hand three times in a row at the same cash game table and win €300.
This promotion is available on all real money Texas Hold'em tables.
To claim a prize, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "Triple Jump claim"
- Hand History number of the first pair hand
- Poker nickname
High Jump
Get a Royal Flush in any suit using at least one of your hole cards and win €100.
This promotion is available on all real money Texas Hold'em tables.
To claim a prize, players must send an email with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August:
- Subject: "High Jump claim"
- Hand History number of the Royal Flush hand
- Poker nickname
400 Meter Hurdles
Win four Super Turbo Sit and Go tournaments in a row on the same level and win a new iPad (4G, 16 GB, White) or a cash prize!
Sit and Go's qualifying for this promotion are marked (PROMO) in the lobby.
Please note that the collation of tournaments is determined by time of registration.
To claim the new iPad, players must send an e-mail with the following information to promo@igt.com no later than Friday, 31 August.
- Subject "400 Meter Hurdles claim"
- Tournament ID of the first Sit and Go in the series (in the poker lobby under Account Information/Last Transactions)
- Poker nickname
- Full home address
- Phone number
RELOAD WEEK (6 - 12 August)
Reload your account between 6th and 12th August to receive a 100% deposit bonus. When depositing 50 euro use the code deposit50 or when depositing 100 euro use the code deposit100. Then when you have earned 500 vip points after the 50 euro deposit or 1000 vip points after the 100 euro deposit (there is no time limit to when you earn the vip points) you will receive your bonus.
SPRINT CHALLENGE - WIN A SEAT TO EMOP BARCELONA
Compete in the Sprint Challenge at 100, 200, 400 and 800 meters between 8 August and 29 August and take a chance to win a travel package to EMOP Barcelona worth €2,000!
Each package consists of a tournament buy-in of €1,100, fours nights' accommodation, and a €350 travel bonus, which is credited to the winners' poker account.
The buy-in in VIP-points is the same as each distance and is calculated from 1 August 00:00 until the start of each challenge. I hope to see you there.
Don't forget to 'Like' our Team Irish Eyes Poker page on Facebook and you can get the password to the Weekly Facebook €100 Freeroll every Wednesday night. Here is the link http://www.facebook.com/pages/Team-Irish-Eyes-Poker/112290065454803
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Click on the links below for details on all Irish Eyes Poker Promotions, Blogs, and News.
Irish Eyes Poker Promotions - click here
Join Team Irish Eyes Poker on Facebook - click here
Join EMOP Ireland on Facebook -- click here
Keep up to date on Doke's blog - click here
Interview with Per Hildebrand - click here
Play Fast Online Poker on your Mobile or iPad on Terminal Poker. For Signup Offer - click here
Play live poker with the Celtic Poker Tour. For next events and news - click here
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