Letter from Doke (News and Promotions 18th April 2012)

Hi all.

Welcome to this week's letter where I have news on the UKITP in Nottingham and an interesting strategy section from a hand I played in the Irish Open against Kevin Vandersmissen, plus some great promotions coming up online including WSOP Express, EMOP Bulgaria, Crazy freerolls and tonights Irish Eyes Facebook €100 freeroll.

My trip to Nottingham for the latest UKIPT was a pretty miserable one. I made a reasonably promising start to day 1B having worked my way up to 20k from 15k starting, but then lost a race on the river in a 15K pot. As the blinds climbed I survived a few allin shoves preflop before running into aces and not getting there. In the 300 side event, usually a good one for me (I final tabled it in Manchester last year and won in Galway), I made a good start before losing most of my stack having gotten in with a straight versus two pair. The only other event I played was the Sunday charity event, which ended in similar fashion to my Irish Open: losing a race to Jude Ainsworth.

I got back to the hotel in time to do a bit of a Sunday grind. I had a few deep runs in the Sunday majors including the €35k on Irish Eyes but busted them all four or five tables out. A profitable day overall but still the main feeling was what might have been. After a few weeks where the focus has been on live poker, I'm looking forward to getting back to grinding online before I head to Vegas for the WSOP in mid June.

In last week's strategy section, I talked about a hand I played in the Irish Open against Kevin Vandersmissen where my opponent's bet sizing led me to draw several conclusions about his hand at different points. Most players are aware of physical tells which can be important in live poker, but bet sizing tells are at least as important. Pay attention to opponents bet sizing when you're not involved in pots, as this information can be useful if you do end up in a pot with them. Some players bet bigger when they're bluffing and smaller when they think they have the best hand and are trying to get value. Other players do the reverse. Of course good players will mix it up, so you have to be careful not to be too definitive. Just because a guy bet big on a bluff once doesn't mean he's bluffing every time he overbets.

When sizing your own bets, first consider what you are trying to achieve with the bet. In general, there are three good reasons to bet:

(1) To get called by worse hands (value betting)

(2) To get a better hand to fold (bluffing)

(3) To protect what you believe is to be the best hand right now from being outdrawn (this obviously doesn't apply on the river)

When your primary purpose is to protect your hand, select your bet size so that your opponent does not have the correct odds to call if he is on a draw. For example, if you get to the turn and you believe your opponent to be on a straight or flush draw, then with either 8 or 9 outs from the remaining 44 cards that could hit the river, he's either just under 4 to 1 to hit (a flush draw) or 9 to 2 if he's on a straight draw. If you bet half the pot, you are laying him odds of 3 to 1, so he is making a mistake if he calls. If, on the other hand, you bet only quarter the pot, you are pricing him in to call laying him 5 to 1.

If you think you don't have the best hand, you have two options: either give it up, or try to bluff. The usual recommendation on sizing bluffs is to bet the smallest amount you think you need to bet to get your opponent(s) to fold. This is why it's so important to pay attention to opponent's tendencies when not in a hand. Some players will call with marginal hands up to a certain bet size: for example they'll keep calling if you keep betting half the pot, but fold to a pot bet or bigger. Others may chase draws to the river but then give up to very small bets if they miss (tiny bets of 20% or less can be profitable against these players on draw heavy boards where the draws don't fill by the river).

If you believe you have the best hand, the traditional advice used to be essentially the reverse of when you're bluffing: bet the most you think will get called. This has been stood on its head in recent times by aggressive Internet players who will bet a bigger amount than they expect to get called so long as there's a reasonable expectation of being called. For example, say the pot on the river is 10k and you want to bet for value (you're confident you have the best hand), and:

(1) You think if you bet 3k, your opponent will always call

(2) You think if you bet 7k, he will call half the time

(3) You think if you move all in for 20k, he'll only call a quarter of the time

In this case, we can work out our expectation for each bet (how much we will make on average):

(1) If we bet 3k, we win an additional 3k 100% of the time, so expectation is 3k

(2) If we bet 7k, we win 7k half the time, and nothing the other half.
Expectation is 7k divided by 2, or 3500

(3) If we shove, we win nothing 75% of the time, and 20k 25% of the
time. Expectation is 20k divided by 4, or 5k

So even though the shove is the bet that will get called the least, it has the highest expectation.

On the promotions front, Irish Eyes Poker are still running Iron Man VIP point freerolls with the next ones on 19th, 25th and 29th April. After these five more VIP point freerolls will run between the 1st May and 17th May. There is one package to EMOP Bulgaria worth €1,650 in each freeroll. Each package consists of a tournament buy-in of €770, accommodation for seven nights and €350 in travel contribution which is credited to the winners' poker account.
Join me in the Crystal Crown Casino, Sunny Beach, Bulgaria between 28th May - 3rd June.

The WSOP Express promotion continues on Irish Eyes with €14,000 added and a total of four packages to WSOP Side Event 56 that is held 2nd to 4th of July in Las Vegas can be won. The package includes: $1,500 tournament entry to Side Event 56, Seven nights stay at a Palazzo Hotel Luxury Suite, $1,740 for travel and spending money. All a player needs to do is make 1 VIP that is earned in last 72 hours prior to the tournament and use this to buy-in to the first level game. There will be two tournaments per day starting at 17:30 and 19:30. Lets meet up in Vages!

Freerolls: Don't forget to 'Like' our Team Irish Eyes Poker page on Facebook and you can get the password to the Weekly Facebook €100 Freeroll every Wednesday night. Here is the link http://www.facebook.com/pages/Team-Irish-Eyes-Poker/112290065454803

And for every Tuesday and Friday between the 10th April and 4th May on Irish Eyes there will be eight surprise freerolls with €500 in each prize pool. These will be announced in the poker client about 50 minutes before the start of each freeroll so watch out for them. The notification about the freeroll will be dispatched in the poker client. Any player with running poker client or open table will receive an invitation in a small envelope.

Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)

Doke

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