Letter from Doke (20th March 2012)

Hi everyone

No live poker this week, so a lot of online grinding. Highlight of the week was a win in the €7500 guaranteed on Irish Eyes. This game runs every night at 8 and has a buyin of €30 with an optional reby or addon. It has a very good structure and is one of my favourite nightly games. I almost pulled off a double that night as I got headsup later in a €10 rebuy but unfortunately lost a flip for it.

After a few light weeks on the live front, I have a busy schedule over the next few weeks starting on Friday with the JP Masters. This is one of my favourite tournaments on the domestic calendar: I final tabled it in my first year on the circuit, and again last year. This year's festival incorporates the Norwegian championships and with a fizzy array of side events will be the fullest festival ever staged in Ireland. Myself and Daragh Davey have booked a room out in Citywest to play as many of the events as possible before I head to Lisbon the following week for the EMOP there. After that is the Irish Open, and then UKIPT Nottingham.

This week's strategy section looks at some of the maths behind push/fold. You occasionally hear players, even good players, saying they'd rather shove 98o than A2o because it's less likely to be dominated if called. The view that 98o plays better against calling ranges than A2o is old school (and also ignores the fact that with an ace as a blocker in our hand, we're less likely to get called than without one due to card removal).

Let's look at some of the maths:
If we think the calling range is top 10% of hands, then 98o has 30.3% equity and A2o has 34.9%
Top 20%: 98o 33.1%, A2o 41.7%
Top 40%: 98o 36%, A2o 46.7%
Atc: 98o 48.1%, A2o 54.9%

So across all calling ranges, A2o has more equity than 98o. The reason why some players seem to think otherwise is unnecessary fear of domination: yes, you're more likely to be dominated when called with A2o, but this is just a small part of the time and the rest of the time you're going to be better off with the A2o. People also tend to overstate how bad it is to be dominated. A2o v AKo is only 26%, but 98o is less than 10% better. This 10% in this specific case doesn't compensate for the times we get called by, for example, KJo (98o 36%, A2o 54.9%) or tens (98o 14.2%, A2o 28.7%).

A head's up on something coming on Irish Eyes in April - the Easter Freeroll. There is no buy-in and no VIP requirements needed for this freeroll which will take place on the 6th April. There is one package to EMOP Bulgaria worth €1,650 added. The package consists of a tournament buy-in of €770, accommodation for seven nights and €350 in travel contribution which is credited to the winner's poker account. Max number of participants is 2000 and registration opens 18:30 on the 5th April.

Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)

Doke

Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions

WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.

Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500

Endurance Challenge worth €8,000

6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.