Hi
This letter comes to you from the JP Masters in Citywest. I've been here since Friday when the main event started. My main event was nothing to write home about, much less write to you all. Day 1 was basic misery as I withered down to 4k, which meant coming back to day 2 with just over ten big blinds. They went in with an ace but never came back after they ran into Emmet "Mully85" Mullin's bigger ace. Mully went on to another deep run finishing fifth in the end, so well done to him. Well done to the other Irish final tableists too, especially eventual winner Knuckles who was left to fly the Irish flag against two Norwegian invaders.
I was starting to think it wasn't going to be my week when I lost half my stack almost straight away on in the 300 side event in one of the funniest hands I've been involved in in a while. Having raised with pocket fives and only the big blind electing to give me a spin, we saw a Qc5c3x flop. The big blind led, I raised, he reraised, I fourbet and he flatted. The turn was a rather ugly ace of clubs, so when he bet small (about 20% of pot) I just flat called. The river four of clubs put 4 to a flush and a straight out there so when he checked I checked behind remarking "I really hope you have a set of threes". He actually had Qx7c for a rivered 7 high flush.
I managed to nurse a fairly small stack to the final table by picking my spots well. I ran well on the final table getting respect when I needed to and luck when the respect dried up. My roommate for this week Daragh Davey got very unlucky not to move into a commanding chip lead five handed, and then again when he lost a race against me to be left short. I ended headsup with English pro Mark Segal and managed to fight back to level pegging after a marathon headsup that I started with a 6:1 chip deficit. I then got lucky winning a 70/30 when we got it in with an ace against a pair to effectively wrap up the win. This was my first live tournament win in a while so it was particularly sweet.
The following day I did some live stream commentary on the final table with Big Iain and played the rebuy side event. No personal joy in this one, but young Master Davey played brilliantly to achieve his second final table and cash in two nights. He mowed through the final table to claim his first ever tournament win outside the Fitz. It's not exactly a secret how big a fan I am of Daragh, and I expect this to be just the start of great things to come.
On Wednesday I head to Lisbon for the EMOP there with David Lappin. April's going to be a very busy month for me on the live front, starting with the Irish Open, then Nottingham UKIPT, the inter county event, and ending with a new monthly tournament in the Joker's Casino in Mullingar on the 29th. The inaugural running of this has a 5k estimated prize pool with a 150+10 buyin. Irish Eyes are running satellites to this starting with a freeroll this Sunday at 8pm where the winner will pick up entry to the event and overnight accomodation in the Austin Friar Hotel. And with Mullingar being central to both Galway and Dubin, this monthly tournament is a welcome addition to the calendar.
The most interesting hand I saw in Citywest featured me as a pure spectator. After I'd folded under the gun, the Norwegian livewire (who was raising hands like 52 from early position) raised to 2100 (at 400/800 with a 100 ante). Young Master Davey threebet small to 4800, and it was then folded to the big blind. He announced raise and threw in the same amount as Daragh's bet. The rest of the table waited to see how much he was raising, and he kept us waiting. Eventually the dealer realised he thought he had already raised, not having seen that Daragh had already done so and intending to raise only to the same amount. When he was told he now had to raise since he had announced raise, he thought for a long time. He had the option of raising to a minimum of 7500, but after some thought he went for a much bigger raise, 13k, effectively pot committing himself with a third of his stack. If he was hoping this would scare Daragh off, he was disappointed as Daragh quickly shoved. Given that he was pot committed, he now had to call it off with the one hand you hate calling a five bet shove with, ace queen.
The point I'd like to make about this hand is not related to his initial mistake (trying to 3 bet not realising Daragh had already done so) but the fact that having made one mistake, he compounded it with another, pot committing himself with a hand that plays terribly against the range of hands his opponents would 5 bet shove. The first mistake could have cost him almost 20% of his stack, significant enough, but it was the second mistake which cost him his tournament life after he had accumulated an enormous stack. While you should always try to avoid making big mistakes in a tournament, if you do find yourself having made one, it's important not to dwell on it or try to retrieve the situation, but to deal with the reality of the new situation you find yourself in, and make the best decision in the changed circumstances. Don't make things worse by making an even bigger mistake.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
The Hive Poker, Instadeal Poker, Casino, Sports Betting, on your PC, Laptop, Smartphone or Tablet.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Letter from Doke (20th March 2012)
Hi everyone
No live poker this week, so a lot of online grinding. Highlight of the week was a win in the €7500 guaranteed on Irish Eyes. This game runs every night at 8 and has a buyin of €30 with an optional reby or addon. It has a very good structure and is one of my favourite nightly games. I almost pulled off a double that night as I got headsup later in a €10 rebuy but unfortunately lost a flip for it.
After a few light weeks on the live front, I have a busy schedule over the next few weeks starting on Friday with the JP Masters. This is one of my favourite tournaments on the domestic calendar: I final tabled it in my first year on the circuit, and again last year. This year's festival incorporates the Norwegian championships and with a fizzy array of side events will be the fullest festival ever staged in Ireland. Myself and Daragh Davey have booked a room out in Citywest to play as many of the events as possible before I head to Lisbon the following week for the EMOP there. After that is the Irish Open, and then UKIPT Nottingham.
This week's strategy section looks at some of the maths behind push/fold. You occasionally hear players, even good players, saying they'd rather shove 98o than A2o because it's less likely to be dominated if called. The view that 98o plays better against calling ranges than A2o is old school (and also ignores the fact that with an ace as a blocker in our hand, we're less likely to get called than without one due to card removal).
Let's look at some of the maths:
If we think the calling range is top 10% of hands, then 98o has 30.3% equity and A2o has 34.9%
Top 20%: 98o 33.1%, A2o 41.7%
Top 40%: 98o 36%, A2o 46.7%
Atc: 98o 48.1%, A2o 54.9%
So across all calling ranges, A2o has more equity than 98o. The reason why some players seem to think otherwise is unnecessary fear of domination: yes, you're more likely to be dominated when called with A2o, but this is just a small part of the time and the rest of the time you're going to be better off with the A2o. People also tend to overstate how bad it is to be dominated. A2o v AKo is only 26%, but 98o is less than 10% better. This 10% in this specific case doesn't compensate for the times we get called by, for example, KJo (98o 36%, A2o 54.9%) or tens (98o 14.2%, A2o 28.7%).
A head's up on something coming on Irish Eyes in April - the Easter Freeroll. There is no buy-in and no VIP requirements needed for this freeroll which will take place on the 6th April. There is one package to EMOP Bulgaria worth €1,650 added. The package consists of a tournament buy-in of €770, accommodation for seven nights and €350 in travel contribution which is credited to the winner's poker account. Max number of participants is 2000 and registration opens 18:30 on the 5th April.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
No live poker this week, so a lot of online grinding. Highlight of the week was a win in the €7500 guaranteed on Irish Eyes. This game runs every night at 8 and has a buyin of €30 with an optional reby or addon. It has a very good structure and is one of my favourite nightly games. I almost pulled off a double that night as I got headsup later in a €10 rebuy but unfortunately lost a flip for it.
After a few light weeks on the live front, I have a busy schedule over the next few weeks starting on Friday with the JP Masters. This is one of my favourite tournaments on the domestic calendar: I final tabled it in my first year on the circuit, and again last year. This year's festival incorporates the Norwegian championships and with a fizzy array of side events will be the fullest festival ever staged in Ireland. Myself and Daragh Davey have booked a room out in Citywest to play as many of the events as possible before I head to Lisbon the following week for the EMOP there. After that is the Irish Open, and then UKIPT Nottingham.
This week's strategy section looks at some of the maths behind push/fold. You occasionally hear players, even good players, saying they'd rather shove 98o than A2o because it's less likely to be dominated if called. The view that 98o plays better against calling ranges than A2o is old school (and also ignores the fact that with an ace as a blocker in our hand, we're less likely to get called than without one due to card removal).
Let's look at some of the maths:
If we think the calling range is top 10% of hands, then 98o has 30.3% equity and A2o has 34.9%
Top 20%: 98o 33.1%, A2o 41.7%
Top 40%: 98o 36%, A2o 46.7%
Atc: 98o 48.1%, A2o 54.9%
So across all calling ranges, A2o has more equity than 98o. The reason why some players seem to think otherwise is unnecessary fear of domination: yes, you're more likely to be dominated when called with A2o, but this is just a small part of the time and the rest of the time you're going to be better off with the A2o. People also tend to overstate how bad it is to be dominated. A2o v AKo is only 26%, but 98o is less than 10% better. This 10% in this specific case doesn't compensate for the times we get called by, for example, KJo (98o 36%, A2o 54.9%) or tens (98o 14.2%, A2o 28.7%).
A head's up on something coming on Irish Eyes in April - the Easter Freeroll. There is no buy-in and no VIP requirements needed for this freeroll which will take place on the 6th April. There is one package to EMOP Bulgaria worth €1,650 added. The package consists of a tournament buy-in of €770, accommodation for seven nights and €350 in travel contribution which is credited to the winner's poker account. Max number of participants is 2000 and registration opens 18:30 on the 5th April.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Letter from Doke (12th March 2012)
Hi
I only got out of the house once this week. That was for an Irish Open satellite in the Burlington. Only 17 runners meant only one ticket and €1300 for second. I played and ran pretty well and ended up chopping it headsup with my namesake, Daragh Davey. Daragh played brilliantly: one call he made with sixes was one of the best I've ever seen live. I did have to get very lucky in the end: threehanded I shoved with pocket twos over a button raise only to be snapped off by 99. The old saying "pocket twos never lose" held true though and a flopped set saved the day.
Other than that I've been solidly grinding away online. I've been specialising mainly in satellites online and have been binking fairly regularly. I did have the disappointment of bubbling an online satellite for an Irish Open package. With two packages up for grabs, threehanded I was at different points a 70% favourite and a 93% favourite to get home, but managed to lose both.
I managed to pick up a few points on the Sharkrankings online table this week. Most nights there are points for anyone playing on Irish Eyes in three tournaments: for a full list of the tournaments, the current leaderboard, and the prizes on offer, see http://www.sharkrankings.com
I also won a "normal tournament" on the Merge network. I ended up headsup with former PCA final tableist Ricky Fohrenbach (regularly ranked in the top 100 in the world online) although I didn't realise it was him at the time. I'd love to be able to say I outplayed him headsup but since it was a turbo, it essentially came down to push/fold ranges.
As the Kenny Rogers song tells us, you have to know when to hold them, but also when to fold them. Folding is probably the weakest part of my game: maybe it's a result of learning the live game in Ireland where most casual players think the game is all about bluffing (and therefore do far too much of it) but I tend to be a bit disbeliever and end up calling it off with marginal hands more than I should. In his book Daniel Negreanu says that you should work on the assumption that people are not bluffing unless they give you clear evidence to the contrary. Well, that might work in Canada, but if Daniel does appear at the Irish Open this year, I'm pretty sure he'll quickly find out we do things a little differently here.
However, being able to fold when you're beaten is as vital a skill in poker as any other. Chips saved when you make a good fold are actually more important than chips gained from a good call. I've recently been reading a very good book on how the human mind works lent to me by Albert Kenny. It looks at how we reach decisions. Different types of decisions use different parts of the brain. Some decisions are best left to the rational calculating part, while others are best resolved by the instinctive emotional part. A friend who is also a professional player was joking to me that I was a pretty bad player when I started. Although disagreeing with him (I was a solid winning player from the start, both live and online, unlike most players who start as losing players), I did accept that on the technical and mathematical aspects of the game I was a lot less knowledgeable than I am now. But I pointed out that since I was aware of my deficiencies as a novice, I relied much more heavily on instinct and reading other players physically than I do these days. I often think that while I have obviously gained a lot from a sound understanding of the technical and mathematical details of the game, I have also lost something too.
Recently when playing live I've been trying to re-engage the instinctive part of my brain to read other players rather than just focusing on the technical aspects of the game. One hand I played early in the Burlington, I raised a limper with AK. The flop came AA6 and my continuation bet was called. The turn was an innocuous looking 8 and my opponent again check called. The river was a 9 and my opponent instantly shoved for twice the pot. This completely went against the flow of the hand : till now it looked like my opponent was either trying to keep the pot small with a marginal hand, or on a draw (there was a possible flush draw on the flop that didn't get there). When you're facing a river bet, you should replay the hand in your head to see what kind of hands your opponent could conceivably play this way.
In this case:
1) He could have a hand that I was behind even before the river so he didn't need to worry or even think about the river before shoving, like A6/A8/66/88. All these hands could conceivably be limp called preflop, and play the flop and turn as played
(2) The river could have improved him (A9 or 99)
(3) He could be overplaying a worse ace assuming it must be good
(4) He could be bluffing with a missed flush draw
Having done the analysis with the rational part of my brain, I now tried to look at what my instinct was telling me (what most players call their "gut"). My opponent looked very comfortable so I really didn't think he was bluffing. He also had not got out of line up to this point. I thought some weaker aces like AQ or AJ would most likely raise pre, and if I ruled them out, the number of hands I was beating shrunk even further. My gut instinct was my opponent wouldn't do this with a missed draw at this point, and when I put it all together I decided either I was beaten before the river, or got outdrawn on the river, so I folded. After I folded, my opponent showed A9, and when I told the table I'd folded AK, Daragh Davey was surprised saying "surely he can have a worse ace". The rational part of my brain agreed, but the instinctive part had convinced me he didn't in this
instance.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
I only got out of the house once this week. That was for an Irish Open satellite in the Burlington. Only 17 runners meant only one ticket and €1300 for second. I played and ran pretty well and ended up chopping it headsup with my namesake, Daragh Davey. Daragh played brilliantly: one call he made with sixes was one of the best I've ever seen live. I did have to get very lucky in the end: threehanded I shoved with pocket twos over a button raise only to be snapped off by 99. The old saying "pocket twos never lose" held true though and a flopped set saved the day.
Other than that I've been solidly grinding away online. I've been specialising mainly in satellites online and have been binking fairly regularly. I did have the disappointment of bubbling an online satellite for an Irish Open package. With two packages up for grabs, threehanded I was at different points a 70% favourite and a 93% favourite to get home, but managed to lose both.
I managed to pick up a few points on the Sharkrankings online table this week. Most nights there are points for anyone playing on Irish Eyes in three tournaments: for a full list of the tournaments, the current leaderboard, and the prizes on offer, see http://www.sharkrankings.com
I also won a "normal tournament" on the Merge network. I ended up headsup with former PCA final tableist Ricky Fohrenbach (regularly ranked in the top 100 in the world online) although I didn't realise it was him at the time. I'd love to be able to say I outplayed him headsup but since it was a turbo, it essentially came down to push/fold ranges.
As the Kenny Rogers song tells us, you have to know when to hold them, but also when to fold them. Folding is probably the weakest part of my game: maybe it's a result of learning the live game in Ireland where most casual players think the game is all about bluffing (and therefore do far too much of it) but I tend to be a bit disbeliever and end up calling it off with marginal hands more than I should. In his book Daniel Negreanu says that you should work on the assumption that people are not bluffing unless they give you clear evidence to the contrary. Well, that might work in Canada, but if Daniel does appear at the Irish Open this year, I'm pretty sure he'll quickly find out we do things a little differently here.
However, being able to fold when you're beaten is as vital a skill in poker as any other. Chips saved when you make a good fold are actually more important than chips gained from a good call. I've recently been reading a very good book on how the human mind works lent to me by Albert Kenny. It looks at how we reach decisions. Different types of decisions use different parts of the brain. Some decisions are best left to the rational calculating part, while others are best resolved by the instinctive emotional part. A friend who is also a professional player was joking to me that I was a pretty bad player when I started. Although disagreeing with him (I was a solid winning player from the start, both live and online, unlike most players who start as losing players), I did accept that on the technical and mathematical aspects of the game I was a lot less knowledgeable than I am now. But I pointed out that since I was aware of my deficiencies as a novice, I relied much more heavily on instinct and reading other players physically than I do these days. I often think that while I have obviously gained a lot from a sound understanding of the technical and mathematical details of the game, I have also lost something too.
Recently when playing live I've been trying to re-engage the instinctive part of my brain to read other players rather than just focusing on the technical aspects of the game. One hand I played early in the Burlington, I raised a limper with AK. The flop came AA6 and my continuation bet was called. The turn was an innocuous looking 8 and my opponent again check called. The river was a 9 and my opponent instantly shoved for twice the pot. This completely went against the flow of the hand : till now it looked like my opponent was either trying to keep the pot small with a marginal hand, or on a draw (there was a possible flush draw on the flop that didn't get there). When you're facing a river bet, you should replay the hand in your head to see what kind of hands your opponent could conceivably play this way.
In this case:
1) He could have a hand that I was behind even before the river so he didn't need to worry or even think about the river before shoving, like A6/A8/66/88. All these hands could conceivably be limp called preflop, and play the flop and turn as played
(2) The river could have improved him (A9 or 99)
(3) He could be overplaying a worse ace assuming it must be good
(4) He could be bluffing with a missed flush draw
Having done the analysis with the rational part of my brain, I now tried to look at what my instinct was telling me (what most players call their "gut"). My opponent looked very comfortable so I really didn't think he was bluffing. He also had not got out of line up to this point. I thought some weaker aces like AQ or AJ would most likely raise pre, and if I ruled them out, the number of hands I was beating shrunk even further. My gut instinct was my opponent wouldn't do this with a missed draw at this point, and when I put it all together I decided either I was beaten before the river, or got outdrawn on the river, so I folded. After I folded, my opponent showed A9, and when I told the table I'd folded AK, Daragh Davey was surprised saying "surely he can have a worse ace". The rational part of my brain agreed, but the instinctive part had convinced me he didn't in this
instance.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Letter from Doke (5th march 2012)
Hi all
With no live scheduled this week, it was a week of solid online grinding. I had a pretty good week overall, the highlights being winning three Nottingham UKIPT packages, an EMOP Lisbon package tonight, and the Sharkrankings game on Irish Eyes. I booked the flights for Lisbon tonight. Mrs. Doke can't come with me on this trip so instead my friend David Lappin is travelling with me. David's a colourful character to say the least so it should be an interesting trip. Irish Eyes are still running satellites so I hope a few of you will join me there too. Lisbon (or rather Estoril, where the tournament is) is a really beautiful seaside resort.
This week's strategy follows on from last week where we looked at the maths behind raising with AQ out of the small blind is a better play than shoving when the big blind has a 20 big blind stack because when it induces the shove it makes 4.6 bbs on average. This is greater than the 2 bbs he gains if he open shoves and gets it through. While this is always true, there are certain situations in tournaments where the open shove is preferable because the few additional big blinds gained are worth a lot less than the risk of losing a big chunk of our own stack. These situations arise in or around bubbles, particularly in satellites. On the bubble of satellites, a few extra big blinds gained are worth a lot less than those lost when we lose a flip or a 60/40. So in those situations, if you decide to play the hand, it's better to maximise your fold equity by shoving.
A big well done to my good friend and fellow Team Irish Eyes member Mick Mccloskey. Mick came second in this weekend's Western Open and while I know he'll be disappointed not to have won but it's a great run by the veteran.
Finally, Sharkrankings have revamped their online tournament list on Irish Eyes Poker where players can earn Sharkrankings points for the online poker leaderboard. Weekly online tournaments with over €80,000 in prizemoney guaranteed can now be played to earn points. See www.sharkrankings.com for more details.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
With no live scheduled this week, it was a week of solid online grinding. I had a pretty good week overall, the highlights being winning three Nottingham UKIPT packages, an EMOP Lisbon package tonight, and the Sharkrankings game on Irish Eyes. I booked the flights for Lisbon tonight. Mrs. Doke can't come with me on this trip so instead my friend David Lappin is travelling with me. David's a colourful character to say the least so it should be an interesting trip. Irish Eyes are still running satellites so I hope a few of you will join me there too. Lisbon (or rather Estoril, where the tournament is) is a really beautiful seaside resort.
This week's strategy follows on from last week where we looked at the maths behind raising with AQ out of the small blind is a better play than shoving when the big blind has a 20 big blind stack because when it induces the shove it makes 4.6 bbs on average. This is greater than the 2 bbs he gains if he open shoves and gets it through. While this is always true, there are certain situations in tournaments where the open shove is preferable because the few additional big blinds gained are worth a lot less than the risk of losing a big chunk of our own stack. These situations arise in or around bubbles, particularly in satellites. On the bubble of satellites, a few extra big blinds gained are worth a lot less than those lost when we lose a flip or a 60/40. So in those situations, if you decide to play the hand, it's better to maximise your fold equity by shoving.
A big well done to my good friend and fellow Team Irish Eyes member Mick Mccloskey. Mick came second in this weekend's Western Open and while I know he'll be disappointed not to have won but it's a great run by the veteran.
Finally, Sharkrankings have revamped their online tournament list on Irish Eyes Poker where players can earn Sharkrankings points for the online poker leaderboard. Weekly online tournaments with over €80,000 in prizemoney guaranteed can now be played to earn points. See www.sharkrankings.com for more details.
Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)
Doke
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Irish Eyes Poker March Promotions
WSOP Express promotion will see 3 players win a package to this years WSOP (including entry to side event 56). Entry to try and win a package is only 1 earned VIP point.
Sit & Go Most Played Race worth €22,500
Endurance Challenge worth €8,000
6 EMOP Lisbon Iron Man Freerolls worth €2,000 each.
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