Letter from Doke (22nd November 2011)

Hi,

Doke here again. I spent most of this week in Riga at the European Masters of Poker grand final. A very good Irish contingent travelled, most of them Team Irish Eyes players, but overall numbers for the final itself were disappointing. Speaking to the organisers after, they said they felt that a change was needed for next year, and that Dublin was the best place to have the grand final. There was also some debate as to whether the buyin to the final should be bigger than the other tour stops or not.

I played four official events without troubling the scorers. We got there in time to late reg for the supersat. This was a fast structure and I was gone fast when a bare K2s flush draw got there against my kq on a queen high flop. In the main event, I was drawn at a very Irish looking table, right beside Phil Baker and across from Noel O'Brien. I won a decent sized pot early on where I 7 bet shoved aces against a guy who had committed 45% of his stack with his 6 bet. With that much of his stack in I didn't think he was folding but he did, showing kings. I didn't really mind the fold as it meant picking up almost half his stack rather than risking the suckout. Mathematically there's not much in the difference between the two, When he folded, I had a stack of 23k 100% of the time. If he called, 82% of the time the aces hold and I have 31k (making my expectation 25420) and 18% of the time I'm crippled to 2k (making my expectation 360). Although my
expectation is higher if he calls (25780 versus 23k), from a variance reduction point of view I'd prefer to have a sure 23k at this stage of the tournament. A few people asked me why I didn't flat the 6 bet. I thought flatting for that much of my stack would make my hand look like aces at least as much as the 7 bet did, plus I can't be 100% certain I get the rest of his stack post flop. For example, if an ace (but no king) comes on the flop, he may decide not to put any more chips into the pot as there's nothing in my range now that kings beats. On the other hand, if a king comes but no ace, we are getting it in, so the flat allows him a free shot to outdraw me on the flop.

After that pot, I lost a big one to Noel when we both had overpairs to the board but his was bigger. Noel disguised his hand very well and I wasn't really putting him on an overpair. That left me with a reshoving stack as the blinds rose and the antes kicked in, and I eventually went for what looked like a good spot when Phil opened in the cutoff (which he was doing almost every time it was folded round to him) and I found AJ on the button. Once Phil snap called I figured I wasn't in great shape, and his AKs dominated me. I pulled ahead on the turn with a jack and thought I was still ahead on the river, but wasn't (my jack had given Phil a flush draw that got there on the river). At least my chips went to a good home, and Phil went on to be the sole Irish cash in 15th.

I also played the 500 side event, exiting on the second last table in a similar spot, reshoving a decent suited ace over a loose button raiser only to find myself dominated, and the 200 side event, where I also made the second last table going out reshoving a dominated hand.

Phil Baker organised a special sit n go with himself, myself, Feargal Nealon, Mark Buckley, Noel O'Brien, Jason Barton and 3 scandis. The structure was much better than normal in these things and it lasted several hours. It was a classic clash of styles, with the loose aggro players going at it tooth and nail in the early going. With the slowness of the structure and no antes, I felt tight was right, so I played very tight. When the dust settled, it was the three tightest players on the table left to battle it out. After I won a race to eliminate Jason Barton in third (Jason played absolutely superbly: perfect stt poker despite much ribbing on how few hands he was playing), I was headsup with one of the Scandis. I chipped up at the start, then was left short after I lost a 70/30 for the win. I recovered and then pulled ahead again winning a flip, and closed the deal getting it in 70/30 and holding this time. Only a sit n go but it was nice to get something out of the weekend.

This week is the Fitzwilliam festival and I'm planning to play most of the events including the main. Good luck at the tables - unless I'm at the same table :)

Doke